#STOPTHESTUPID - There is no need for a Costly Split Primary Election in Ohio
Confusion, Mayhem, and Disinformation (lies) are being spread by the Ohio Republican State Central Committee and Ohio legislators.
There is no good reason to spend $30 to $60 million on a risky two to three way split primary race.
What races will be on the May 3 primary?
With State House races, Senate races, and Senate Central Committee races being pulled from the ballots because of the Ohio map battle, the need for a second primary will need to happen this year.
After multiple attempts to redraw the congressional map lines by the Ohio Redistricting Commission, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose issued a directive on March 23 for the Ohio Board of Elections to remove all candidates for the Statehouse, Senate, and State Central Committee races from the May primary ballots.
Will the congressional races be on the May 3 ballot?
Yes, congressional races will be on the ballot. However, the Ohio Supreme won't decide whether the maps passed by Republicans on the Redistricting Commission in early March violate anti-gerrymandering rules, but the window for review extends into late May - several weeks after the primary is currently scheduled to take place.
Ohio Secretary of State's Frank LaRose office spokesman Rob Nichols said the congressional maps have been approved for the primary and voting on these races will go forward. In a written order on March 29, Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor, gave the parties approximately two months to present written arguments and evidence. The Ohio Supreme Court will take up the Ohio congressional lines issue again in late May. It will be up to the Supreme Court to decide the outcome of votes cast if the arguments and evidence were to change the congressional boundaries from the May 3 vote.
Will there be a second 'primary election' this year?
While only the General Assembly can mandate election dates, Secretary of State spokesman Nichols said the races left off the May 3 ballot will need to be part of a second primary election, with the date to be determined. By Ohio Law, the second primary can not be set until after the May 3 elections are finalized, which usually takes about a month. The earliest a special election would be able to take place would be by mid-July to early August With most speculating that the second primary will be on August 2-3.
Why is there a split primary?
Every 10-years by Ohio law - political districts are redrawn. These are the districts for the Ohio House and Senate and Congressional districts among others. These districts are drawn based upon population and the goal is to get equal population districts. This is why the shape (boundaries) of the district change shape over time.
Is a split primary beneficial for Ohioans?
A split primary will cost at-least $20-$30 million more than a normal primary - and if the primary is split into three primary elections - it will cost $40-$60 million extra. All of these additional costs could be avoided by moving the primary to August 2nd or August 3rd and avoid a split primary altogether. If simplicity, eliminating confusion, and saving money are your standards - a single August primary would be your go to. This would reduce labor and auditing costs and eliminate asking Ohio voters to show up and vote twice or three times in a primary.
Consistently, the South Carolina lawyers that are advising our legislators have been wrong - and they are advising our Ohio legislators to take an irresponsible and costly risk with taxpayer monies. They at one time believed that they would force the Ohio State Supreme Court to accept maps - all our legislators were assured that the time before last that the maps would be accepted - and guess what? They were not accepted.
The Ohio legislature can move and consolidate the primary up until May 2nd and save Ohioans money - Every day that the primary remains split is costing Ohioans money.
Legalities
Who draws the districts? - For Congressional districts, that is Ohio’s legislative branch (the General Assembly). For General Assembly districts (the Ohio House and Senate) that is done by a redistricting commission.
Keep in mind - Ohioans hard-earned taxpayer money was used by the Ohio Redistricting Commission to pay two non-Ohio, highly questionable expert mapmakers, to draw unbiased districts. They spent $49,000 on each mapmaker (one Democrat and one Republican) that utilized free online mapmaking tools. These mapmakers were paid $49,000 each for less than a day of work and then the Redistricting Commission did not use the maps they produced. They spent nearly $100,000 to have out-of-state experts tell Ohioans how the maps should be drawn and then did not use them. #STOPTHESTUPID
(Concern 1)
There are legal experts that believe the Ohio Constitutional Amendment that was passed by ballot initiative creating the redistricting commission is illegal. The Redistricting Commission is composed with members of the executive branch of government and most this most likely violates the separation of powers if challenged. The redistricting commission was and always has been a bad idea. A much better solution is weighted voting county districts. The General Assembly has essentially abdicated their responsibility to redraw their districts and that could be seen as not providing a Republican form of government the is for the people and by the people. So there is a concern on whether the whole redistricting commission that is causing all the problem is even legal to start with.
(Concern 2)
The Redistricting Commission is made up of humans and they are members of political parties and they are trying to draw districts that favor their party. The new law however states: “No plan shall be drawn primarily to favor or disfavor a political party.” The commission must prove that they did not draw the maps to favor a certain party and that the metrics used to determine the boundaries were not based on political lean. What Supreme Court Justice Maureen O’Connor has been ruling is that the metrics to draw the map have been overtly political - even when there was an attempt by Republicans to cede some power to the Democrats. The argument is not on the basis of who has what power - but what metrics are used to determine the shape of the district - and if political lean is considered in shaping the district - then plainly and simply it violates the spirit of the law.
(Concern 3)
In legal challenges, the United States Supreme Court has ruled that State Supreme Courts have original jurisdiction and EXCLUSIVE jurisdiction in any challenge to redistricting. Ohio law requires the Ohio Redistricting Commission to amend the plan or adopt a new plan, as applicable, if a plan, district, or group of districts is ruled unconstitutional. Ohio law prohibits a court from ordering the implementation of a plan not approved by the Redistricting Commission. Ohio law also prohibits a court from ordering the Commission to adopt a particular plan or to draw a particular district.
So, we are at an impasse. Clearly and overtly, the Redistricting Commission is using the metric of political lean to draw districts - something that Ohio’s anti-gerrymandering law that amended the Ohio Constitution sought to prohibit. Yet, while the Ohio State Supreme Court can rule the maps unconstitutional, they are prevented from providing a solution.
(The Gamble)
No one in the legislature wanted to challenge the anti-gerrymandering law. It was passed with overwhelming support by the people. So they kicked the can down the road and we are dealing with it now.
The anti-gerrymandering law was passed in 2018 by ballot initiative and was generally embraced by registered Democrats and Republicans. Democrats and left leaning groups led the charge to pass this constitutional change which was approved by 2/3rd of Ohio’s voters. Had Ohio legislators and Republican leaders listened to the people they would have put out their own solution to gerrymandering like weighted voting. They didn’t - and in their arrogance they empowered the Democrats and left-leaning organizations in Ohio.
What happens now is that the case is before the Circuit Court. The Ohio Republican establishment is banking on a ruling in their favor - and this is what the South Carolina lawyers are advising our legislators - that they have a chance for a favorable ruling. Our legal experts do believe it is possible for them to get a favorable ruling but not likely. If Republicans do get a favorable ruling - it is likely to go to the U.S. Supreme Court where the Federal Circuit Court ruling will be vacated because the State Supreme Court has exclusive Jurisdiction. Since it is the U.S. Supreme Court’s responsibility to arbitrate over separation of powers issues - they will most likely invalidate the portion of the law that prevents the State Supreme Court from rendering a decision. Some will say - “Well State Justice Maureen O’Connor will no longer be a justice by that time, so, problem solved” - but they would be wrong. The U.S. Supreme Court has a history of acting very quickly and in an expeditious manner when it involves election - most recently was Florida’s hanging chad’s controversy. Odds are very likely that what will happen is that unless the Redistricting Commission drops the use of the political lean metric that our Ohio State Supreme Court will be deciding our districts. There is not much chance of winning this legal battle. While experts will point to Rucho v. Common Cause, 139 S.Ct. 2484 (2019) – That found that partisan gerrymandering represents a political question on which the federal courts cannot rule because there is no credible way to define and measure fairness in the political context. - this case did not rule that State Supreme Courts, that have exclusive jurisdiction, cannot rule on these types of matter. It is furthermore, very unlikely that the court would absolve the State Supreme Court of having original jurisdiction - this would then begin challenges on State Sovereignty and the Federal Courts being able to rule over us at-will. Either way - liberals and socialists win.
Lastly, if the Congressional Districts are ruled unConstitutional, guess what? The May 3rd election could be vacated by the courts and we have three primary elections.
What is a Republican to do?
The Republican Party is being destroyed by the zeal of arrogant moderate establishment Republicans that control the Party. They are going forward with the early May 3rd split primary to protect the establishment. This really has nothing to do with Eric Holder as has been claimed and the stupidity of what is happening now - as this could be seen in 2018 when the anti-gerrymandering law was put in place. This is exactly what Democrats wanted to have happen. They they telegraphed what they were going to do - and either way the courts rule - they win.
We have to face it, our Republican leaders have no vision and they will be ceding an incredible amount of power to Democrats unless they were to implement a long-term solution - LIKE WEIGHTED VOTING. Our Republican Leaders inaction and reluctance to be proactive rewards Democrats. What can you do?
Make the point to your legislators that everything that is happening is complicated and confusing to the voter and if they value the voter they will make it simple and more cost effective.
Ask your legislators if it is pride and animus that is the reason of the split primary.
Tell your legislator that the $30-$60 million that will be spent in a 2 or 3 way split primary would be better spent on legal challenges that would eliminate abortion in Ohio, could be used for law enforcement to stop illegal opioids, and could be better used to protect our children and fight sex traffickers.
Tell your legislator that for ages we have been told we cannot pass moral, just, and conservative laws due to legal challenges by the left - and yet, now you are willing to spend so much money unnecessarily. Tell you legislator that they are losing their credibility.
Support Ohio Promise Keepers and their reforms to the Ohio Republican Party - to make it a party that Conservatives can be proud of. Let’s restore ethics and integrity to the party. VoteSmart and vote for an Ohio Promise Keeper for Ohio State Central Committee.
As always thanks for your support and if we all work together - we can make Ohio a better place!