The Unintended Consequences of Raising the Minimum Wage to $15 in Ohio
Ohio Republican Chairman Alex Triantafilou and Ohio Speaker of the House Jason Stephens are teaming up to help liberal Democrats raise the Ohio minimum wage. Be afraid - Be very afraid!
Well, folks, it’s time to roll up our sleeves and dive into a big topic that’s stirring up more debate than a barroom brawl on payday—Ohio’s “Raise the Wage” ballot initiative. This November, Ohioans will most likely have the chance to vote on whether to hike the minimum wage up to a hearty $15 an hour. Now, on the face of it, that sounds pretty good, right? More money in the pockets of hard-working folks. Who wouldn’t tip their hat to that?
But, as with any hearty stew, it’s the ingredients that matter—and this particular recipe has a few that might not sit well in everyone’s stomach. This isn’t just a simple pay boost. This is forcing the market to artificially pay more for wages. It’s also, yet another, change to the Ohio Constitution, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that these amendments stick around, often with a whole host of unintended side dishes.
Why now? Well, it seems the pandemic left Ohio’s hospitality and tourism industry feeling a bit like a boxer on the ropes—wobbly and seeing stars. Bars, restaurants, and mom-and-pop shops across the state are just starting to find their legs again. But Democrats were so successful in amending the Ohio Constitution in 2023 - they said heck - why not make this a regular thing! So, this wage increase sound all well and good but it will be a knockout punch for many, forcing them to close their doors for good, or turn to robots and computers to replace human hands. That might pay everyone better - but guess what - less people will get paid.
Plus, there’s a bit of a political shuffle going on behind the scenes. With some folks in the statehouse dragging their feet and others looking for quick wins, it’s a perfect storm of disaster. So, as you’re deciding how to cast your vote, it might be wise to chew over not just the wage increase itself, but all the fixin’s that come with it. After all, it’s not just about making more dough; it’s about making sure we can all keep bringing home the bacon. And maybe, just maybe, we ought to consider if this is the best way to season our economic gumbo.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT
Alright, let's break down the "Raise the Wage" initiative and see how it shakes out for Ohio's economy—spoiler alert, it's fattening some wallets but shrinking many more down to nothing.
Imagine you're a small business owner, say, a little diner in Dayton or a family-run farm outside of Toledo. You've survived the ups and downs of the economy, the pandemic's curveballs, and now, just as you're dusting off the menu board or oiling up the tractor, and here comes a new challenge: a mandatory wage hike to $15 an hour. Sounds noble if you are an employee, but it’s like throwing a wrench in the works. This will hurt small business the most while large multinational corporation stand to reap the benefits.
Now, as an economists who has crunched the numbers like it’s breakfast, this isn’t just a pinch—it’s a punch to the stomach. Myself and others predict about 30% of Ohio’s hospitality industry could go belly up because their margins are thinner than the diner coffee. They’ve been serving up meals and smiles with costs that keep creeping up—like that burger, fries, and a Coke meal that jumped from $5.29 in 2020 to nearly $10 here in 2024. With wages pushed to $15, that same meal might rocket to over $13 next year and hit $17 by 2028. It's enough to make you lose your appetite or for a family of four to make bologna sandwiches at home!
And it's not just the dining scene feeling the heat. Small family farms, those backbones of our heartland, are staring down the barrel of the same gun. Higher wages mean higher costs, and without passing those costs on to customers, many might just have to hang up their hats. It’s tough to compete with the big guys when you’re paying city wages in the countryside. Food processors are another subset that will be hard hit - meaning the $15 an hour wage will mean all our food costs will increase dramatically - and guess what? -The $15/hr mandate will disproportionately harm the poor and middle income earners the most. Plus Ohio’s food quality will suffer as grocers will seek to get food from foreign countries that do not have minimum wage rules and produce poorer quality products. This means our healthcare costs should increase.
For Ohio's poor and middle-income folks, the squeeze is real. They're already pinching pennies due to inflation, and as prices climb, those pennies need to stretch even further. It's a bit like trying to stretch a small blanket on a cold night—it just doesn’t cover everything it needs to. Disposable income will dry up and social and hospitality will dry up with it.
What about starting a new business? Well, higher initial wage costs mean fewer entrepreneurs will take the plunge. Ohio's already seen a dip in small business growth—over 35,000 fewer businesses in 2023 than back in 1993. If we make it costlier to start up, who's going to light up their "Open" signs?
Economists, myself included, are sounding the alarm that this well-meaning wage hike could steer Ohio into a decades-long economic winter. And let’s be clear, no one wants to spend a decades in the cold.
In the end, while the intention of the "Raise the Wage" initiative is as warm as a fresh cup of joe, the actual impact will almost certainly leave many Ohioans out in the cold. Like any good recipe, it's all about balance—and this proposal might just need a little more seasoning to make sure it doesn’t spoil the broth.
WHY ARE WE IN THIS SITUATION?
So, how did we get to this particular fork in the road with the “Raise the Wage” initiative? It’s a bit of a saga that involves some strategic missteps, weird bed fellows, and a fair share of political maneuvering. At the heart of the matter, we have Speaker Jason Stephens and the infamous Blue 22. These folks have been as busy as a one-armed wallpaper hanger, promising to slow-walk or outright stymie any legislative attempts that might deflate this wage-hike balloon. It’s politics as usual, with Speaker Stephens and Chairman Triantafilou striking bargains behind closed doors with Democrat leader Allison Russo to ensure mutual support and prolonged tenures in the cushy seats of power. The Republican Party you thought you knew no longer exists!
Meanwhile, you've got the Ohio Republican State Central Committee, who are supposed to be the watchdogs, making sure everyone's playing by the rules and keeping the party's ship sailing straight. But here’s where the plot thickens—they’ve been more like silent spectators than active participants. As prices in the diner rise and the poor get poorer and businesses start counting their pennies tighter than before, the Republican State Central Committee’s lack of action speaks volumes. Instead of showing some backbone and disaffiliating the Blue 22 for their overt loyalty to the Democrats that put them in positions of power, they’ve said some strong words, given a scolding, but the committee has kept to the shadows, perhaps hoping the problem resolves itself. But as any good mechanic will tell you, ignoring a rattle doesn’t fix the engine.
Disaffiliating the Blue 22 should have been an easy choice (easier than sliding a trailer under a freshly greased fifth wheel); it’s not bold, nor a drastic step - when your teammates start playing for the other side - you bench them or fire them from the team. Throwing the Blue 22 out of the Republican Party for the greater good, showing that principles aren’t just plaques on the office wall - should have been an obvious and simple call to make. This kind of decisive action might have reassured Ohio Republicans that the party is serious about maintaining not just economic stability, but also integrity in leadership. It would have sent a clear message: when the water gets rough, the folks in charge won’t just rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic and pee into the wind to make you feel better.
As we stand now, looking at a potential wage hike that could change the face of Ohio’s economy, it’s essential to remember that actions, or in this case, inactions, have consequences. If the State Central Committee continues to sit this dance out, the state’s economy might just be headed for a tune nobody wants to hear. And fixing that, well, it’s going to take a lot more than just tough talk and good intentions.
ARE REPUBLICANS THE GOOD GUYS ANYMORE?
You know, when you step back and take a look at the landscape of the Ohio Republican Party today, you've got to wonder if the term "Republican" is starting to feel a bit like an old hat that doesn’t fit like it used to. Let's chew on that for a minute.
There’s this undercurrent of change in the party, one that’s been steering away from the old roads well-traveled by conservatives and into new avenues of corruption and political self-interest of our officeholders. It’s like when you find your favorite diner has swapped its classic blue plate special for something unrecognizable—and pricier. You can’t help but feel a bit of the old charm has been lost. In Ohio, conservative voices often seem to be getting quieter, because they've been sitting too long in the back of the room. That is because Conservatives have a problem in working together. Its time to put aside the egos and work together.
Take, for instance, the saga of casino gambling introduced under former Governor Kasich. It was sold to us with a shiny promise: halt the runaway property tax train and funnel a river of cash into our schools. Well, that train never did stop. In fact, it picked up speed. The unfortunate aftermath of what the opponents of casino gaming warned us about reads like they were the greatest prophets in history! Ohio now leads the nation in human trafficking per capita and wears the heavy crown for the highest rates of drug overdose deaths from opioids and methamphetamines. It’s a grim ledger that wasn’t in the glossy brochure.
And let’s not forget those promises—oh, those sweet promises—that casinos would mean no new school levies and lighter taxes. If only wishes were horses, right? Instead, what we got was the opposite. Property taxes and school levies have only climbed, squeezing the middle-class Ohioans who were supposed to benefit most. It’s like promising a weight loss miracle while secretly stuffing the burgers with birthday cake.
Now here we are, staring down the barrel of the "Raise the Wage" initiative. And it begs the question: Are Republicans really Republican anymore? Or has the party slowly drifted over the last 30 years into a territory that's a bit too unfamiliar, a bit too willing to gamble with the future for the sake of easy promises? It's a tough pill to swallow, especially when you see the house you’ve built needing more repairs while the builders are arguing over the blueprints.
The current state of affairs might just be a wake-up call for Ohio Republicans to find their way back to the basics, to those bedrock principles that once defined them. We need Conservatives to not throw their hands up in disgust - we need them to be passionate, outspoken, and willing to badger legislators until they get something done. Because, let's face it, without a return to those foundational ideas, we might just find that the party has changed so much, it's hard to recognize it when we walk through the door. And for many Ohioans, that realization might just be the push needed to demand a course correction. After all, if you can't recognize what's on the menu, maybe it's time to have a word with the chef—or find a new diner.
SOLUTIONS
Alright folks, let’s roll up our sleeves and talk solutions. Because when it comes to this "Raise the Wage" initiative, we need more than just good intentions and a pat on the back. We need a plan that’s as solid as a new pair of work boots.
First off, let’s talk leadership in the Ohio House and Senate. It’s like picking the right tool for the job. If it doesn’t fit, you’ll end up with a bigger mess. We need to make sure any new Speaker or Senate president candidate is the kind of person who doesn’t just talk the talk but walks the walk. Here’s what they need to support:
Unified Leadership: We should have a rule where the caucuses of major parties can only put forth one candidate for Speaker of the House and Senate President. Why? It cuts down on the infighting and ensures that the person leading the charge isn't just the most popular kid in the school but the one with the grit and gumption to get things done.
Personhood Legislation: Next up, let’s get serious about legislation that speaks to our values. This means putting a priority on laws like personhood legislation that ends abortion on-demand in Ohio and cleaves back the most egregious sections of Issue 1. It’s about making sure our legislation reflects the morals and ethics many Ohioans hold dear.
Regulating Ballot Initiatives: Here’s a biggie—let’s regulate when and how constitutional amendments and citizen ballot initiatives can appear. By limiting citizen initiatives to presidential election years and legislative amendments to gubernatorial years, we ensure these decisions get the attention they deserve so that a small percentage of voter in an off year election can change our Constitution. And, we should require that at least 40% of all registered voters, not just those who show up on election day, must vote in the affirmative to pass an amendment. This makes sure that a small fraction of the population isn’t deciding for the whole state and as an added benefit - there is an incentive to ensure that the voter roles are kept clean and accurate.
Closing the Ohio Primary: It’s time to close the Ohio primary and establish different classifications of parties. Closing the primary helps to ensure that Republicans vote in Republican primaries and Democrats vote in Democrat primaries. By having different party classifications based on openness and transparency - This would encourage parties to commit to better ethics, transparency, and checks and balances. Think of it as a quality assurance stamp. Parties that meet higher standards get better benefits, sort of like an accreditation for being above board and straightforward.
HOW DO WE STOP THE “RAISE THE WAGE” INITIATIVE?
Pulling the brakes on the "Raise the Wage" initiative is a bit like trying to stop a runaway train—it’s not going to be easy, but with the right tools and a little elbow grease, it's possible. Let's dig into how we can tap the brakes on this thing and maybe steer it onto a different track.
First off, if we're serious about handling this properly, we need to tidy up how and when amendments hit the ballot AS MENTIONED ABOVE. Imagine this: We only let citizen ballot initiatives amend the Ohio Constitution in presidential election years, and reserve legislative ballot initiatives for gubernatorial years. This isn't just rearranging the deck chairs—it's making sure every vote on these big issues gets the spotlight it deserves, without any of the usual distractions.
Now, about those "Raise the Wage" folks—if their initiative passes under the current rules, we can add a little something to the mix. We stipulate IN OUR AMENDMENT TO CHANGE CONSTITUTIONAL BALLOT INITIATIVES TIMING that if “Raise the Wage” passes their initiative won’t kick in until it's reconsidered in 2028. No need for them to collect signatures all over again, just a little patience until we get our ducks in a row. It's like asking everyone to take a breather until we can have a good long look at the implications.
But let’s not forget, the Ohio Republican Party has some housekeeping to do. It's high time the party owns up to the missteps of 2023—like that power grab that tried to squish true grassroots led ballot initiatives and that costly special election that did nothing but burn through $30 million of hard-earned taxpayer money. And don't get me started on the mishandling of the state board of education. Ohioans deserve an apology and a promise for a cleaner, more straightforward approach.
Lastly, why not put our own wage reform package on the table? Something that really fits Ohio's needs. Here’s what we could include:
Vestment: Think of this as a loyalty reward if you are an employee. If you’re fired without cause after a year on the job and your job is not the result of downsizing, you get a week's pay for every year you've been there, up to 26 weeks. It's like severance pay, but it builds up the longer you stay.
Special Wage Rules: For young folks between 16 and 21, along with foreign workers with green cards, the mentally and physically handicapped, and the incarcerated, and those with felonies that have not been expunged - we propose no minimum wage. This gives them a leg up to grab those entry-level jobs without businesses sweating the payroll too much.
Repeal State Minimum Wage: Instead, let's let counties decide if they want a minimum wage law. Local control for local needs. The state would mandate counties that impose a minimum wage law that it must be considered by referendum and that it must be reconsidered by the voters every four years. The minimum hourlywage may not exceed the annual median income as determined by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics divided by 2,000. Counties that impose a minimum wage must require that county employees that have jobs that do not require a professional degree - their wages must be capped moving forward at two times the annual median income for their County.
Structured Overtime: Counties that implement a minimum wage will require employers and the county to pay 0-30 hours at a base rate, Over 30 hours but less than or equal to 50 hours at a rate of time and a half, and over 50 hours - employees must be paid double time
With these measures, we’re not just stopping a wage hike; we’re proposing a sensible, tailored approach that respects both workers and businesses. It's about making the system work better, not just making more rules. It also respects the notion that the state is a giant laboratory. If a county imposes a minimum wage and it wrecks the economy of the county - well - we didn’t wreck the entire State. We can learn from mistakes and missteps.
Lastly, we need to get tough on our party bylaws. These aren’t just words on a page; they’re the rules of the game. And right now, it feels like we’re playing a game where nobody knows the rules because the leadership of the Republican Party is rotten to the core. We need new bylaws that provide for our political rights and ensure a fair shake on leadership checks and balances.
It’s not just about raising the wage; it’s about raising our standards, tightening our belts, and doing the hard work needed to keep Ohio on the right track. Let’s get to work, Ohio, and make sure our future is as bright as a polished diner counter.
The self-serving greed of politicians is why I no longer consider myself "a Republican".
When I quit the GOP, I also stopped every penny in funding I'd been giving and actually demanded refunds from a few politicians!
I am "a CONSERVATIVE" !!!
I know right from wrong.
I know what 'decency' is and what it is not.
My soul is not for sale! I canNOT be bought off!
"Politician" is a FOUR LETTER WORD in my book!!