Why Mike DeWine's Odds of Winning Re-election are not as Good as the Experts are Telling Us!
Support of Niel Petersen this Summer may have many benefits for Conservatives tired of the status quo.
Ohio is doing Poorly
Every expert out there is saying that Mike DeWine can’t lose - yet, We don’t think they took a deep dive into the data or have talked to the people on the ground, or have done any focus group testing.
Ohio is doing very poorly as a State as the latest economic and qualitative data suggests.
Let’s Rewind
The year is 2018, and Mike DeWine barely eeks out a win against Richard Cordray for Governor. The split between winner and loser is a razor-thin 3.7%
During the primary, with Republican Chair Jane Timken’s support for Mike DeWine - DeWine easily won the primary.
He won the primary by 19.6% in 2018
2018 was a historically low turnout for the Republican primary and 2022 was better than expected for Republicans - though a disaster for Democrats. About 1.3 million on average turned out in a Republican primary for Governor. Around 1.7 million is typical for Presidential years.
We can see that Mike DeWine has at least 11% fewer votes in the primary in 2022 (though more voters overall). Let’s say that 40% of Jim Renacci (119,806) and 40% (93,086) of Joe Blystone folks sit the governor’s race out that normally vote - that means that 212,893 fewer people vote for Mike DeWine in the general election. The assumption is if you took the time to vote in the primary that you would normally vote in the general election. The contention is that 40% of the supporters of Renacci and Blystone are so disgruntled at the actions of the Republican party that they will not vote for the establishment Republican.
So, if we extrapolate from DeWine’s 2018 race and give him 212,893 fewer votes (2,022,932) votes to Cordray’s (2,070,046). Cordray would win if going up against DeWine when DeWine’s current negatives are taken into account. Plus, we believe 4% of those that do not normally vote in the primary but vote in the general election will jump ship. That is another 90,000 going over to the Democrat side and 90 less for Republicans. That would put the election at DeWine with 1,932,932 to a Cordray with 2,160,046. That comes out to 53% to 47% in favor of a Democrat in the 2022 general election against DeWine.
For Dewine to win you have to believe that:
That Nan Whaley will appeal less to Democrats than Richard Cordray did.
That more than 60 out of 100 Blystone and Renacci voters will vote for DeWine
That Mike can erase the negatives in the minds of Republicans that he has accumulated during his time in office and that Nan Whaley will not be able to mount an effective campaign against Mike DeWine.
That Nan will have just as many if not more negatives with her Democrat base as Mike DeWine will have with his Republican base.
The Democrat’s Operation Chaos
Rush Limbaugh tried to get enough Republicans to jump out of the Republican Party and pull a Democrat Ballot in 2008 to vote for Hilary Clinton to keep her in the primary against Barack Obama. This failed but a significant number of Republicans did do this - enough to have Democrats sweating.
In the 2022 May primary, the DailyKos may have succeeded in Ohio where Limbaugh failed nationally. The Daily Kos appealed to Ohio Democrats - they said “Hey, Democrats most likely aren’t going to win the Governor’s Seat or the Senate Seat and because Ohio has open primaries - it is smarter to vote for the Republican candidates that are the most liberal in the primary. Nan Whaley and Tim Ryan are going to win by big margins so please pull a Republican Ballot. Mike DeWine and Matt Dolan are liberal Republicans we can live with. We cannot allow a conservative to get into office.”
The DailyKos had the help of the former ACORN network that is still operating in Ohio’s urban centers, primarily in the basements of black churches. These are the people that are Democrat Vote harvesters that go into retirement centers and mental rehabilitation centers to immorally take advanced of the most vulnerable to harvest votes. This type of harvesting was showcased recently in the documentary 2,000 Mules.
After doing some analysis of the voter history of those that voted in the primary, it is very rational to believe that as many as 236,000 Democrats in Ohio pulled a Republican ballot. While Republicans had a record turnout - the Democrats had a record low turnout. This could be explained by the success of the DailyKos’ “Operation Chaos.”
Now that Roe Vs. Wade has been overturned and the Ohio Heartbeat Bill is in effect - will these same DailyKos Operation Chaos participants vote for DeWine again or will they vote for Nan? Many believe these Democrats will not be able to hold their nose and vote for DeWine in the General Election. Even though Conceal Carry and Abortion have been outlawed - we cannot see more than 60% of Renacci and Blystone's supporters voting for DeWine.
If DeWine has 236,000 fewer Democrat supporters in the General election - do you think he wins?
The Petersen Factor
Niel Petersen is an Independent Republican (unaffiliated Republican). What is an unaffiliated Republican? Petersen has chosen to not affiliate himself with the establishment Republican Party. He has the values and ethics of a biblical conservative - that many Republicans believe best represent them. He is a breath of fresh air and very likely, if his petition signatures are approved could split the vote.
There is a lot to like about Petersen. He is young and energetic, he is a dynamic speaker, he’s smart, and can think on his feet. Most that hear him talk agree he is the future of the party. During the primary, he largely stayed out of the war that split the more conservative vote between Blystone and Renacci. He’s not a negative speaker, he brings a message of hope and acknowledgment that Republicans have their problems. Rather than condemn he has a roll up your sleeves attitude to fix party politics and corruption.
Petersen is already dangerously close to pulling the magic number of 20% of Republican voters in polls. Beyond 20%, experts believe there is no path to victory for DeWine and possible mass migration to Petersen. If that were to happen, Petersen would gain the name recognition needed to supplant DeWine.
If Petersen gets funding -or- if the Ohio Promise Keepers are successful in changing the face of the State Central Committee - there is a path to victory for Petersen.
A record number of Conservative Republicans are praying for Niel Petersen to get on the ballot. We’ll know sometime in late July when the Secretary of State releases his findings on approving his petition signatures (he needs 5,000 good signatures).
While many people believe that Niel Petersen will have a hard time getting on the ballot because he only got around 6,000 signatures and he needs 5,000 valid signatures - the odds are more in his favor than one might think. Conventional wisdom is that you need more than 20% above the required number because many signatures will be thrown out. That is true for major party petitions. normally the goal is 30% to 40% in excess of the required signatures. That doesn’t hold true for independents, unlike getting signatures for a Republican - and Independent is not restrained from getting signatures from just one party. They can get signatures from unaffiliated voters and even from Republicans and Democrats.
In 2012, for instance, Independent candidate for U.S. Senate Scott Rupert got only about 10% more than the required signatures and he got on the ballot and got 4.6% of the vote or 250,000 ballots cast against Sherrod Brown. If Petersen gets on the ballot and gets above the 20% - DeWine can’t win. What will the attitude be then? Will Republicans - seeing that Mike can’t win go for a more acceptable alternative - like Niel Petersen? We feel that is very likely. The key for Petersen is to get 20% or higher in the polls. He is already at 15% making him the highest polling Independent in Ohio history.
The Renacci-Blystone Factor
If Jim Renacci and Joe Blystone want to be the real spoilers for DeWine - they could endorse Niel Petersen. If they endorse Niel on the premise his signatures get approved, they really risk very little politically - the establishment already hates Blystone and Renacci. If they endorse Niel then a lot of their supporters will help to champion Niel and give him a great boost in networking and name recognition. If Niel is successful in getting elected then Blystone and Renacci will earn a lot of credibility with the grassroots and people will love them for coming together to fight a larger evil.
If Niel loses and DeWine, what will happen? Well, there will be a major upheaval in the Republican Party. There will be a rejection of the direction of the party and it will be ripe to be overthrown by conservatives. Conservatives love Renacci and Blystone. There really is a no-lose situation for Renacci or Blystone to support Niel Petersen - they will only benefit in future political aspirations where they seek the support of Conservative Republicans. If you want to resonate even more with the grassroots and get passion behind future campaigns - the message is clear - endorse Niel Petersen now!
The First Energy Factor
Ohioans are still mad about the Frist Energy Scandal. The largest and most costliest scandal in Ohio’s history. The FBI investigation is ongoing and any release that may tie DeWine more closely to the bribes and underhanded, manipulative, and deceitful double-dealing will not help his cause. There is a lot of time between now and November, and many believe that more First Energy info will be released before November.
The Ohio State Teacher’s Retirement System Scandal Factor
Dwarfing the First Energy Scandal is the STRS scandal that occurred under Attorney General DeWine and Governor Dewine and Auditor Yost and Attorney General Yost. Both Yost and DeWine were begged to look into the suspected illegal behavior occurring at the STRS. A preliminary forensic audit found more than $4 billion lost due to gross incompetence and mismanagement and another $143 million that was absconded with. This prompted a special audit by Auditor of State Keith Faber. Sources say that the special audit has been completed but that the Audit will not be released until after the November general election.
The public education sector is a large voting block. This appears to be very damning to DeWine.
The Split Primary Factor
Many Ohioans in the know (informed voters) are miffed because of the split primary. The split primary is costing Ohioans $30 million and it was totally unnecessary. They could have scheduled all races for late August and saved the Ohio taxpayer. The DeWine administration is already saddled with record spending.
Won’t Nan’s Support of Abortion kill her in the election?
It certainly could but it is not expected to play a big part. Roe Vs Wade is now overturned and the Ohio legislature ultimately has the final say on abortion. Why? The Ohio legislature has a supermajority in the Ohio House and Senate and is expected to keep it - They very likely would be able to override any type of veto by the Governor. Many Democrats will vote for Nan that are pro-life because they will make a similar rationalization.
Are there benefits if Nan Whaley wins?
What if Nan Whaley wins? Does Ohio survive? Are there any benefits?
If Nan Whaley wins she will be surrounded by Republicans that are not going to let her do much. Now, for the last 30 years, the legislature has done nothing but empower the Governor to the point that he is a King. The Ohio Governor makes more appointments than any other Governor in the United States. One good thing that is most likely to occur is that Republicans will most likely pass legislation that takes away many of the Governor’s appointments. In other States it is typical for board appointments to be 3, by the Governor, 3, by the Speaker of the House, and 3, by the Senate President - so the Governor does not have so much unilateral authority.
Where Nan Whaley would hurt the Most
Let’s face it, there is nothing good about electing a Democrat. She would most likely do many things similar to Strickland as Governor. We do expect a large Republican turnout in the 2022 general election and we expect a huge red-wave against Biden’s policies. If Whaley wins she is going to be fighting this dogma and one would think that she would move to become somewhat more centrist.
Education on the other hand is where Nan could really hurt if the legislature does not move quickly now - to ensure that she does not have as much power and influence on future generations of Ohioans. Her ability to push liberal indoctrination and push transgenderism and LGBTQ mantra will be unprecedented. The legislature could circumvent this with the creation of an education Senate that would allow the wishes of Ohio Parents to better influence how and what their children are taught. A few education Senate proposals have been put forth. Rather than a full senate, there is just a board proposal that would be composed of the 11 state board of education districts that are out there now. Then, there is the 33-member senate that would have districts that mirror Ohio’s current senate districts. Lastly, there is a proposal for an 88-member education senate where each county sends a representative.
Placing our education system into a separate body that only deals with education issues can help push out some of the politics at play in determining the fate of Ohio’s children and young adults.
What about the effect of Biden on the Governor’s Race?
As inflation remains high, war looms every present, and conservatives are castigated by Biden - it will have an effect on down-ticket democrats. While Nan does not have the name recognition of DeWine - she is running for Governor as a woman - something she can leverage. As long as she keeps her distance from Biden and has practical disagreements with him - she will be embraced every bit as much as Richard Cordray.
Ohio was very slow to recover under Trump - putting us in 47th place in the recovery race. Ohio is in dead last place in recovery from COVID-19 - largely due to Mike DeWine’s Cuomoesque policies. The arbitrary shutdowns, bureaucratic enforcement, and wanting to penalize those that cherish their liberties can’t all be blamed on Joe Biden.
We believe as Ohio’s economy continues its slow implosion - that Ohioans will associate this with Joe Biden and Mike DeWine. DeWine’s unwillingness to tap the Ohio Rainy Day Fund, provide a tax holiday on gas tax, and reduce spending of any kind is enough to bite him in the bud.
Suffice it to say, Mike Biden…errrrr….I mean Mike DeWine’s re-election is not in the bag.
I’m with you that DeWine is in trouble. Personally, I’m done eating a crap sandwich simply because it’s the only thing on the menu (i.e., official Republican).
I’m not so certain, though, about your assumption that 236,000 Dems switched to vote Republican in the May primary. Has there been a canvas of these voters to determine it’s legitimate and there was no fraud? Do we really think the only Democrats to take the initiative to vote in the primary were motivated to see “Operation Chaos” succeed? Instead, I’d suggest the ballot harvesters committed fraud and I’d like to be proven wrong.
Just saying voting for Petersen will split the vote and put Whaley in office. The powers that be decided BEFORE anyone decided to run for Gov. that they were going to put DeWine in office. Remember the 1 mil. they gave DeWine under the table BEFORE they even endorsed him?