The "Redistricting" Ballot Initiative to Change Ohio's Constitution - is it good or bad?

Ohio's Redistricting: Exploring Current, Proposed, and Weighted Voting Systems

As Ohio gears up for another election cycle this November, the conversation around how we redraw our legislative and congressional districts in 2030 has reached a critical juncture. Voters will decide between two distinct redistricting approaches: the current Ohio Redistricting Commission and a proposed Citizens Redistricting Commission. Alternatively, there is another plan on the horizon that seems to have a lot of benefits that Ohioans like but it is not on the ballot yet. Though Ohio legislators could put the innovative weighted voting plan on the ballot if they were to act quickly - they are not likely to. Each system offers unique advantages and presents specific challenges.

The Current Ohio Redistricting Commission

The existing Ohio Redistricting Commission comprises seven members, including the Governor, the Auditor, the Secretary of State, and appointees from both major political parties. This commission is tasked with drawing the state's legislative and congressional districts every ten years following the U.S. Census.

How It Works:

• Composition: Seven members from the executive branch and both political parties.

• Decision Making: A majority vote (4 out of 7 members) is required to pass a redistricting plan, necessitating bipartisan support.

• Criteria: Districts must be contiguous and comply with federal and state laws, ensuring nearly equal populations and avoiding undue favoritism towards any political party.

Advantages:

• Experience and Balance: The involvement of seasoned political leaders ensures that the process benefits from their expertise and maintains a balance of power.

• Bipartisanship: The requirement for bipartisan support in decision-making aims to reduce extreme partisan gerrymandering.

Challenges:

• Susceptibility to Manipulation: Despite the bipartisan structure, the process remains vulnerable to political influence and manipulation by insiders.

• Public Approval: With only a 39% approval rating, many Ohioans are dissatisfied with the transparency and fairness of the current system.

The Proposed Citizens Redistricting Commission

The proposed Citizens Redistricting Commission seeks to replace the current system with a 15-member citizen-led body designed to ensure a more open and independent redistricting process. This commission would include five members from each of the two major political parties and five independents.

How It Works:

• Composition: Fifteen members—five from the largest political party, five from the second-largest, and five independents.

• Selection Process: Members are selected through an application process involving a bipartisan screening panel and a professional search firm to ensure impartiality.

• Decision Making: A supermajority vote (9 out of 15 members) is required to pass a plan, which must include votes from both major parties and independents.

Advantages:

• Transparency and Inclusivity: The citizen-led commission aims to enhance transparency and public trust by involving ordinary citizens and increasing public participation.

• Fair Representation: By requiring the inclusion of independents, the system seeks to balance political interests and provide fair representation for all Ohioans.

Challenges:

• Complexity and Resources: Establishing and maintaining the commission requires significant resources and a complex selection process.

• Political Resistance: Both Republicans and Democrats may have concerns about losing control and influence over the redistricting process. Republicans might fear decreased influence, while Democrats may worry about independents leaning conservatively.

The Weighted Voting Plan

The weighted voting plan offers a revolutionary approach by eliminating the need to redraw district boundaries every ten years. Instead, each county would serve as a state House district, with weighted votes assigned based on population. This system aims to simplify redistricting and remove the potential for gerrymandering.

How It Works:

• House Districts: Each county becomes a state House district. Representatives cast votes proportional to their district's population, with one vote per 100,000 residents.

• Senate Districts: Senate districts combine two counties, and each senator casts one vote regardless of population.

• Stability: District boundaries remain permanent, with only adjustments to weighted voting based on population changes.

Advantages:

• Elimination of Gerrymandering: Fixed district boundaries eliminate gerrymandering, creating a fair and predictable political landscape.

• Simplicity and Popularity: The plan is straightforward and easy to understand, enjoying an 82% approval rating among Ohioans. It aligns with the public's desire for consistency and fairness.

• Enhanced Campaign Strategies: Permanent districts allow political parties and grassroots organizations to develop long-term campaign strategies and better engage with voters.

Challenges:

• Constitutional Amendment: Implementing weighted voting requires amending the Ohio Constitution.

• Political Shifts: While Republicans might lose some influence in the House, they would gain power in the Senate, necessitating strategic adjustments.

Should Conservative Republicans Work to Oppose this Constitutional Ballot Amendment?

OPINION: Conservative Ohioans may hear that the proposed amendment to the Ohio Constitution is flawed, and indeed it is. However, it also presents a unique opportunity for grassroots conservatives. The passage of this amendment will compel the Ohio Republican Party to operate differently, shifting away from reliance on millionaires, billionaires, and special interests and embracing the door-to-door and volunteer activity of Conservative Republicans. If conservatives take a passive stance and allow this legislation to pass, the changes won't take effect until 2031, following the next U.S. Census. The Republican Party is likely to mount a legal challenge to the amendment’s constitutionality if it is approved. Remember, the Ohio Republican Party sat on its hands when the current Redistricting amendment was put into effect - and it passed easily. Given what has happened with the Ohio Republican Party and its loss of respect by its own members - it is easy to see that the Ohio Republican Party is due for a sea change though establishment members will fight this every step of the way.

Nevertheless, the period between 2024 and 2031 offers ample time for conservatives to advocate for the adoption of a weighted voting system. Such a system would provide permanent districts and end the perennial conflicts over redistricting and gerrymandering….and the people love the idea. What could be easier for them - the constantly changing borders of equal population districts - or - permanent county borders and the changing population changes the value of the vote your legislator casts?

At present, the conservative movement lack the resources, unity, and coordination to effectively oppose this popular amendment. Many are exhausted and dismayed because of 2023 and their efforts to stop abortion on demand and recreational marijuana. However, we do have the ability to come together and propose a superior solution on the ballot before 2031 for the 2032 election season. This proactive approach could ensure that we implement a more equitable system, safeguarding the principles of fair representation for the future and a realistic path towards implementation.

Ohio is setting a pattern that every decade it will adopt a new system when the public sees how poorly the commission system they have voted for will be abused by self-interested politicians or by judges and citizens who are influenced. A weighted voting system avoids all that for our State General Assembly districts - and it is the most popular and easiest to understand for Ohioans.

Conclusion

As Ohioans evaluate the three redistricting options, the weighted voting plan emerges as a standout due to its simplicity, fairness, and broad appeal. With its high approval rating and potential to fundamentally transform Ohio's political landscape, it presents a compelling alternative to the current commission and the proposed citizens' commission. The choice made by voters will shape the state's political framework for decades, underscoring the importance of thoroughly understanding each approach and its implications.

The likelihood of the constitutional ballot initiative passing is high. While Democrats largely support it and Republicans generally oppose it, the Ohio Republican Party's recent setbacks have weakened its influence. The party's inability to effectively counter measures such as abortion on demand and recreational marijuana, coupled with financial strains from supporting moderates and internal disorganization, has left it struggling to reach the public without a substantial media campaign. Additionally, the passage of the constitutional amendment would bolster the position of conservatives within the party, as grassroots activists are pivotal in public engagement efforts. By 2030, the Ohio Republican Party will need to adopt a more bottom-up approach to secure public buy-in for their redistricting plan.

Within the Ohio Republican Party, a growing chorus of conservative dissent is increasingly vocal about the party's perceived failures, particularly in defending core values such as the sanctity of life. Many conservatives feel the party has strayed too far from its principles, prompting a significant shift in their political strategies and alliances. The term "Uniparty" has been used to describe the party's perceived alignment with broader, less distinct political agendas.

For conservatives who prioritize principles over party affiliation, the proposed new ballot initiative offers an opportunity for greater influence. If passed, it could shift power dynamics within the Ohio Republican Party, compelling it to engage more deeply with grassroots members to sway public opinion. This would necessitate a departure from a top-down structure, requiring the party to listen to and incorporate grassroots voices to maintain its effectiveness.

The proposed constitutional amendment, while not without its flaws, resonates with the bottom-up sensibilities championed by grassroots conservatives. It creates a framework that prioritizes public input, ensuring that voices are heard and interests represented. This shift could democratize the party's internal workings, fostering a more inclusive and responsive political environment where grassroots conservatives play a crucial role in shaping policies and strategies.

Ultimately, the new amendment has the potential to catalyze a transformation within the Ohio Republican Party. It would prompt a move away from hierarchical decision-making towards a more participatory approach. This change, while challenging, could strengthen the party by reconnecting it with its base and reaffirming its commitment to fundamental conservative principles.